Revisiting the Migration-Poverty-Growth Nexus in an Oil-Dependent Economy: Evidence from Nigeria
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Abstract
Sustainable economic growth in developing economies is often constrained by structural inefficiencies, poverty, and migration dynamics, yet empirical evidence linking these factors in Nigeria remains limited. Existing studies have largely examined growth determinants in isolation, neglecting the simultaneous influence of poverty and migration on long-term development. This study addresses this gap by investigating the dynamic interplay among migration, poverty, and sustainable economic growth in Nigeria from 2000 to 2023.
Employing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and an Error Correction Mechanism (ECM), the analysis integrates real GDP, gross fixed capital formation, labour force participation, remittance inflows, poverty headcount, and trade openness, using 24 annual observations (n=24) sourced from the World Bank, CBN, and NBS. Unit root and cointegration tests confirmed mixed integration orders and a long-run equilibrium among variables, validating the ARDL approach for both short- and long-term inference.
The findings indicated that in the short run, capital formation significantly boosts GDP (β = 0.0123, p < 0.01), whereas labour and remittance inflows exert weak and insignificant effects. Poverty exhibits a positive short-run association with GDP (β = 9.2966, p < 0.01), reflecting informal coping mechanisms, while trade openness shows a negative but insignificant effect. Long-run estimates confirm capital formation as a growth driver, labour participation as structurally constrained (β = –0.000284, p < 0.01), and remittances as largely unproductive. The Error Correction Model confirms an adjustment speed of 44% annually (ECT = –0.44), with the model explaining 77% of GDP variation (R² = 0.77).
Based on the findings, it is recommended that there is a need for investment deepening, labour market reforms, productive utilisation of remittances, and inclusive growth policies to align with SDGs 1 and 8, ensuring that economic expansion translates into poverty reduction and sustainable development.
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