Effect of demographic factors and economic development on carbon intensity in Nigeria: an insight into the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis
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This paper sought to examine the effect of urbanisation, population growth and economic development on carbon intensity in Nigeria from 1961 to 2014. The study utilised secondary data from the World Bank Development Indicators. The data were analysed using ordinary least squares regression, vector autoregressive model, and threshold regression. Findings from the study revealed that economic development had an inverse and significant effect on carbon intensity in line with the prediction of the Environmental Kuznets Curve. Meanwhile, population growth and urbanisation exerted a positive and significant effect on carbon intensity in Nigeria. The VAR regression result indicated that urbanisation, carbon intensity, and economic development were strongly endogenous in predicting themselves. The threshold regression revealed that the optimal urbanisation level that will not propel carbon intensity in Nigeria is 14.444%. As such, rural development policies should be encouraged to curb massive rural-urban migration, which can drive up the degree of urbanisation in Nigeria.
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